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Time Series and Forecasting Coursework 1 2017 This coursework is an individual coursework and counts for 50% of your overall mark for the module. Please submit your work to the Unihub desk in the Hendon library by Friday 25th August 2017. Please put your name, student number, module tutor’s name, and the module name and code on the front cover. Please also note that resit work that is a second attempt will carry a maximum mark of 40%. For this coursework you are a statistician who works for a utility company and you have to investigate various issues for them. The company started out as a water supplier then began supplying gas twelve years ago and recently moved into supplying electricity. The first issue they want you to investigate is the growth in the number of their electricity customers (recorded monthly over the last two years). Using Minitab, fit a trend curve and produce forecasts for the next six time periods (indicate how well the trend fits using suitable measures of error and residual analysis). The actual figures for June, July, and August 2017 then become available and are, respectively, 1426, 1489 and 1552. How do your forecasts compare with the actual values? Refit the model using this new data, assessing the model fit, and recalculate your forecasts for June, July, and August 2017.The data are in sheet one of the file 2017ResitCoursework1TimeSeries.xlsx, the number of electricity customers (‘customers’) being given in thousands. Secondly, they want you to investigate water consumption (average litres per person per day) in a city recorded monthly over a period of thirty months (the most recent time period being month 30). Conduct a time series analysis of the data using plots and a simple smoothing method to produce forecasts for the next six time periods (show detailed working in an appendix using Excel). The data are in sheet two of the same file. Thirdly, they want to investigate quarterly sales of gas recorded over the last six years with a view to forecasting sales for each quarter of the following year. Conduct a time series analysis using Holt-Winters Method to obtain the necessary forecasts 1 (show detailed working in an appendix using Excel). The data are in sheet three of the file under ‘gas sales’, sales are recorded in tens of thousand pounds. Present your work in the form of a short report to the company. Your report should include the following sections: a title; a summary of up to 300 words, which summarises your work; an introduction of up to 200 words, which introduces the work; a methodology section of up to 300 words, which includes details of the methods used to analyse the data, (you may wish to refer to relevant appendices where appropriate); an analysis section For all your analyses remember to COMMENT on your results. Keep your comments close to the tables and plots you are commenting on. Also remember to give plots and tables titles. Put any detailed calculations in an appendix. a conclusion of approximately up to 300 words which summarises the main findings of your report; appendices (clearly labelled and presented).
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