Learning Outcomes for the module:

a.Formulate problems in terms of models to support decision-making, both from qualitative and quantitative perspectives.

b.Analyse the outputs and outcomes of models (computer based and non-computer based) in terms of their managerial implications.

The Assignment Task:

1.Draw the cognitive map, without potential actions, to show the linkages between the five attributes listed in the paper, with “total inventory cost” at the top of the map. Explain the rationale for your cognitive map.

2.Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of generating weights by individual interviews (and combining the results) or by a group-based method.

3.Using your individual data set provided on Blackboard, calculate the scores for each of the SKUs in an EXCEL spread sheet, using the approach described in the paper, and the specific weights listed in Table 2. Put the scores in order, identifying the top 10%, the next 20% and the remaining 70%. Discuss how you would work with the managers in the company to “check for plausibility” (see case study page 212-213).

4.Extend the EXCEL spread sheet to calculate the overall weighted Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) for each of the three groups

Suppose forecasting method A has a lower overall unweighted SMAPE than method B, but a higher weighted SMAPE. Which method would you recommend and why?

5.The approach adopted in this paper assumes that managers are able to identify the relative importance of five criteria. What approach would you take if the managers were not able to do this?